Tennessee Football 2025 Season Preview: Key Matchups, Predictions, and Scenarios
The 2025 Tennessee Volunteers football team faces a challenging yet manageable schedule.
Here’s a look at their upcoming slate of games, potential outcomes, and what could make or break their season.
2025 Tennessee Football Schedule:
Aug. 30 – vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta)
Sept. 6 – vs. ETSU
Sept. 13 – vs. Georgia
Sept. 20 – vs. UAB
Sept. 27 – at Mississippi State
Oct. 4 – OPEN DATE
Oct. 11 – vs. Arkansas
Oct. 18 – at Alabama
Oct. 25 – at Kentucky
Nov. 1 – vs. Oklahoma
Nov. 8 – OPEN DATE
Nov. 15 – vs. New Mexico State
Nov. 22 – at Florida
Nov. 29 – vs. Vanderbilt
Key Matchups & Missing Teams:
The Volunteers miss a few heavy hitters from the SEC in 2025, including Auburn, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas, and Texas A&M. This absence is a welcome relief for Tennessee, as the team will not face some of the toughest opponents in the conference. Most notably, the Vols will not have to battle Texas or Texas A&M, which is a significant advantage. Furthermore, Tennessee avoids the always unpredictable matchups against Auburn, LSU, and Missouri, as well as the chaotic nature of facing Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss.
On the plus side, Tennessee will face Georgia and Oklahoma at home, which is a favorable situation for the Volunteers. These games are crucial, and being able to host them in Knoxville could provide a significant boost to their chances.
Analyzing the Schedule: The Pros and Cons
The Good:
Tennessee has some notable advantages on its schedule. First and foremost, the team misses seven quality SEC teams—each of which has its strengths. This means the Vols will only need to focus on teams they can realistically beat, with Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt standing out as very winnable games. These three matchups should be considered essential victories.
The Vols’ SEC opener is against Georgia, but luckily for them, that game will take place in Knoxville. The early part of the season also features a relatively soft stretch with Syracuse in Atlanta and three teams (ETSU, UAB, and New Mexico State) that did not make bowl appearances in the previous season. Tennessee should enter its open weeks with a strong record, setting up a favorable second half of the season.
The final stretch of the regular season offers some manageable matchups, with three of the last four games being held at home, including against Vanderbilt and New Mexico State. These home games should be seen as opportunities for the Vols to secure critical wins.
The Bad:
Unfortunately, Tennessee faces significant challenges with two key games on the road—against Alabama and Florida. These two powerhouse programs have been dominant in recent years and will pose considerable tests for the Vols. While three of their last four regular-season games are at home, the sequence of three road games in four weeks (including trips to Mississippi State and Kentucky) will be grueling.
The biggest obstacle could be the early matchup with Georgia, one of the SEC’s top teams. Not only is Georgia an elite opponent, but the game will be crucial in setting the tone for the Volunteers’ conference play.
Best and Worst Case Scenarios:
Best Case Scenario:
Tennessee gets off to a strong start by defeating Syracuse in the season opener. They follow that up with a thrilling win over Georgia at home, which will set the stage for a solid run through the SEC. The Vols might take a loss at Alabama, but they manage to avoid any more slip-ups, taking care of business against teams like Oklahoma and Arkansas. With everything clicking, Tennessee finds itself in the SEC Championship game, securing a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff (CFP) for another season.
Worst Case Scenario:
In the worst-case scenario, Tennessee’s season is derailed by a series of close losses. The Vols could drop their opener to Syracuse and face another setback when Georgia defeats them in their SEC opener. A loss to Alabama could follow, and the team might stumble against either Oklahoma or Arkansas at home. While Tennessee remains competitive, it ends up losing just enough games to fall short of SEC contention. The Volunteers could also suffer setbacks in their rivalry game against Florida, further complicating their postseason hopes. Despite a strong record, these losses leave Tennessee on the outside looking in, missing out on a chance for a conference title or a CFP berth.
Season Prediction:
Looking ahead to the 2025 season, Tennessee should finish with a solid record, potentially slightly better than the team’s actual performance might suggest. The Vols will likely win against non-conference opponents like ETSU, UAB, New Mexico State, and in-state rival Vanderbilt. With a little luck, the Vols could pull off home victories over Oklahoma and Arkansas. On the road, Tennessee will need to overcome tough challenges in Kentucky and Mississippi State. Given the quality of their opponents, Tennessee can realistically expect at least two wins out of their tough road trips to Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Syracuse.
In total, the Vols should be able to secure 9 or 10 wins, assuming they perform well in the games they’re favored to win and can pull off at least a couple of upsets. The potential for a trip to the SEC Championship and a berth in the expanded CFP is definitely within reach, though it will take strong performances in the key matchups against Georgia, Alabama, and Florida.
