College football is on the brink of yet another massive shift. With the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff launching in the 2024 season, it’s only a matter of time before the format stretches to 16 teams. On the surface, that sounds like a good thing — more access, more excitement, and more games. But for blue blood programs like Ohio State, a 16-team playoff may do more harm than good.
1. Devalues the Regular Season
Ohio State’s dominance in the Big Ten and consistent top-10 finishes have long been a point of pride. But in a 16-team playoff format, where even three-loss teams are likely to qualify, the importance of regular season games dramatically decreases. The stakes of the Michigan game, traditionally a season-defining showdown, could be dulled if both teams are safely in the playoff regardless of outcome.
For a program that thrives on perfection — where one loss often feels like a crisis — this shift in stakes could fundamentally alter the identity of Ohio State football. Games that once carried weight and urgency could feel like glorified exhibitions, especially against weaker Big Ten opponents. That dilution of the regular season undermines what has long made college football special, particularly in Columbus.
2. More Opportunities for Upsets
Ohio State is almost always one of the most talented teams in the country, boasting top-five recruiting classes and NFL-ready rosters. In theory, more playoff games should favor deeper, better-coached teams. However, more games also increase the risk of upsets. In a one-game, win-or-go-home format, fluke turnovers, weather, or simply a hot performance from an underdog quarterback can derail even the best teams.
A 16-team bracket opens the door for lower-seeded teams to catch fire at the right time, turning what should be a clear path to the title for top teams like Ohio State into a minefield. The Buckeyes, who have been burned by unexpected playoff performances before — such as Clemson in 2019 or Michigan in recent years — are at greater risk of falling short not because they aren’t elite, but because the format invites more chaos.
3. Player Health and Opt-Outs
Ohio State routinely sends players to the NFL. In a 16-team playoff, the season could extend to as many as 17 games, rivaling the length of an NFL schedule. The added wear and tear on star players could lead to more injuries or even increased opt-outs from athletes protecting their draft status. While expanding the playoff is meant to give players more meaningful games, the physical toll could have the opposite effect — top talent may begin sitting out if their draft future is secured.
That hits a program like Ohio State especially hard. The Buckeyes depend on elite talent executing at the highest level. If those players aren’t fully committed to the postseason, or worse, aren’t available due to injury, their chances of winning it all shrink.
Conclusion
A 16-team playoff might be good for college football as a whole — more teams, more revenue, more games. But for Ohio State, a perennial powerhouse built on dominance, discipline, and elite execution, the format introduces more risk than reward. With a devalued regular season, more chances for chaos, and the threat of overworked or unavailable players, the 16-team playoff could become more of a headache than a trophy path for the Buckeyes.
