Why Mississippi State Will – and Won’t – Win the Tallahassee NCAA Regional
The Mississippi State Bulldogs arrive in Tallahassee for the NCAA Regional as a team capable of both brilliance and frustration. Their path to winning the regional, hosted by No. 9 national seed Florida State, is clear but fraught with challenges.
Why Mississippi State WILL Win:
The Bulldogs possess a potent offense capable of putting up runs in a hurry. Players like Dakota Jordan (.354 AVG, 20 HR, 72 RBI) and David Mershon (.347 AVG, 27 SB) are consistent threats at the plate, providing both power and speed. Hunter Hines (16 HR, 56 RBI) adds another big bat to the lineup. When their bats are hot, State can outslug almost anyone. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have shown a knack for timely hitting and have improved defensively, turning crucial double plays throughout the season. Their recent performance, including a sweep of Kentucky and a series win over Ole Miss, demonstrates their ability to peak at the right time. They also boast a solid bullpen, which could be a significant advantage in the grind of regional play, especially against a team like Florida State that might rely heavily on their ace.
Why Mississippi State WON’T Win:
The biggest hurdle for Mississippi State is the host, Florida State. The Seminoles are a top-10 team nationally with a formidable ace in Jamie Arnold, who has been dominant. Facing Arnold, particularly in a decisive game, could be a significant challenge for the Bulldogs’ offense. Beyond FSU, the regional also includes Northeastern, a team with an impressive 27-game winning streak and a nation-leading team ERA. While their strength of schedule might be lower, their pitching staff is clearly elite and could stifle State’s bats.
Consistency on the mound has been a concern for Mississippi State at times throughout the season. While they have strong individual performances, stringing together multiple dominant outings from their pitching staff against high-caliber opponents has been a challenge. If their starters struggle, the bullpen will be heavily relied upon, and even a good bullpen can be stretched thin over a weekend. Additionally, while their RPI suggests an “easier” regional on paper, the reality of facing a top-tier FSU and a red-hot Northeastern team makes it a very difficult path.
Ultimately, Mississippi State’s success hinges on their ability to consistently put runs on the board and for their pitching to hold strong, especially in pressure situations against top-tier arms. If they can overcome the formidable pitching of Florida State and Northeastern, the Bulldogs certainly have the offensive firepower to advance.
