Almost halfway through another dismal Washington Wizards season, it’s worth reminding ourselves: the team needed to go through something like this 3-4 years ago. The owner and the front office didn’t have the stomach for it them and instead frittered away value they could have gotten by trading away top players for draft picks in hopes of contending for the playoffs.
When Bradley Beal requested a trade, and Kristaps Porzingis told them his preferred destination, the new front office put an end to the patch-and-spackle era, got what they could, and looked to the future.
Unfortunately, the Ernie Grunfeld and Tommy Sheppard patch-and-spackle was hiding a yawning pit of basketball sins that has a bottom not visible to the naked eye. The checklist includes uninspired and conventional coaching, substandard effort, poor decision-making, selfishness, personal agendas ahead of the team, and plain old lack of talent.
More simply: the Wizards aren’t smart enough, big enough, strong enough, fast enough, skilled enough to win, and they don’t try particularly hard to make up for it. The bright side? They’ll change players and coaches over the next few seasons, maybe change the culture along the way, and maybe-maybe-maybe construct a team that contends for something more than just squeaking into some form of postseason competition.
The dark side? Until that happens, fans and observers are stuck watching crap like the somnambulant loss to the short-handed Detroit Pistons.
Since my last stats update, the Wizards have gone 1-6 and continue to languish near the bottom in every measure of team strength. Here’s where they rank (where they ranked at the last check-up is parentheses):
- strength of schedule adjusted efficiency differential: 28th (27th)
- offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 25th (25th)
- defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 30th (29th)
Here’s where they rank in The Four Factors.
Four Factors Offense
- efg% — 13th (10th)
- tov% — 16th (16th)
- oreb% — 30th (30th)
- ft/fga — 26th (24th)
Four Factors Defense
- efg% — 28th (28th)
- tov% — 15th (14th)
- dreb% — 30th (30th)
- ft/fga — 12th (12th)
To sum up: the Wizards aren’t doing much of anything well. What they’re doing “best” is mid to the rest of the league. What they do poorly, they do as bad or worse than anyone in the league.
It may be tempting to take the Alfred E. Neuman approach to this season. After all, most of these guys will be gone (including the coaching staff) by the time the team is good again.
However, I believe there are some legitimate concerns. The new front management expected to lose, but they also re-signed Kyle Kuzma, traded for Jordan Poole, and added Tyus Jones in an effort to avoid a collapse. The squad has been in good health…but they have had their teeth kicked in game after game.
The next step should be to concede defeat, trade away veterans that other teams desire, and stockpile selections for the future. Waiting risks depreciating players, as Wizards fans have witnessed. It is unworthy of repeated watching.
Last time I wrote one of these, I included some results from my +PTS (plus-points) stat, which compares a player’s offensive efficiency to league average on the exact same number of possessions. Here’s the NBA’s top 10 in total +PTS:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC — 144.5
- Nikola Jokic, DEN — 136.6
- Tyrese Haliburton, IND — 112.7
- Lauri Markkanen, UTA — +90.4
- Joel Embiid, PHI — +81.0
- Domantas Sabonis, SAC — +76.0
- Jarrett Allen, CLE — +75.0
- Giannis Antetokounmpo — +74.1
- Mike Conley, MIN — +73.5
- Obi Toppin, IND — +67.0
Daniel Gafford is 11th in this stat. Tyus Jones ranks 14th.
And here’s the bottom 10:
- Scoot Henderson, POR — -127.0
- Paolo Banchero, ORL — -100.5
- Cade Cunningham, DET — -84.8
- Jordan Poole, WAS — -80.6
- Jalen Green, HOU — -78.6
- Kyle Kuzma, WAS — -75.7
- Victor Wembanyama, SAS — -74.7
- Andrew Wiggins, GSW — -67.8
- Jordan Clarkson, UTA — -67.3
- Shaedon Sharpe, POR — -64.3
Player Production Average
Here’s a look at individual performance using my Player Production Average metric. PPA credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls). PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor. There’s also an accounting for role/position. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45. It usually takes a score of 225 or higher to be part of the MVP conversation.
I’m including some other stats, including usage, offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions used), relative offensive rating (offensive rating – league average offensive rating. For reference, I’m also including league average at the bottom of the table.
PPA & Other Metrics: Wizards through 39 games
| WIZARDS | POS | GMS | MPG | ORTG | USG | relORTG | LAST | PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Jones | G | 39 | 28.0 | 130 | 17.2% | 14.8 | 129 | 131 |
| Daniel Gafford | C | 36 | 26.1 | 138 | 14.2% | 22.8 | 117 | 116 |
| Deni Avdija | F | 39 | 27.4 | 116 | 19.1% | 0.7 | 112 | 93 |
| Kyle Kuzma | F | 39 | 31.1 | 106 | 29.7% | -9.8 | 106 | 87 |
| Delon Wright | G | 18 | 17.2 | 117 | 14.9% | 1.6 | 82 | 76 |
| Corey Kispert | W | 38 | 21.9 | 119 | 18.6% | 3.7 | 66 | 63 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | W | 38 | 26.5 | 107 | 13.7% | -8.3 | 61 | 51 |
| Landry Shamet | G | 23 | 16.0 | 113 | 18.6% | -2.6 | 40 | 49 |
| Jordan Poole | G | 38 | 29.1 | 102 | 25.1% | -13.5 | 43 | 48 |
| NON-ROTATION | POS | GMS | MPG | ORTG | USG | relORTG | PPA | PPA |
| Eugene Omoruyi | F | 19 | 5.8 | 126 | 27.6% | 10.4 | 117 | 88 |
| Jared Butler | G | 17 | 7.5 | 131 | 22.6% | 15.7 | 68 | 87 |
| Patrick Baldwin Jr. | F | 11 | 7.6 | 113 | 16.1% | -2.3 | 26 | 36 |
| Anthony Gill | C | 24 | 6.1 | 106 | 18.3% | -9.5 | 34 | 36 |
| Johnny Davis | G | 19 | 7.9 | 97 | 14.5% | -19.1 | 30 | 25 |
| Jules Bernard | G | 3 | 5.0 | 37 | 23.3% | -79.1 | -67 | -109 |
