🌟 Context: Texas State’s Departure
Texas State officially accepted a Pac‑12 invitation, paying a $5 million exit fee to leave the Sun Belt after the 2025–26 academic year . The Bobcats will boost the Pac‑12 to meet the minimum of eight FBS football members and capitalize on a lucrative new TV deal with CBS . This exit leaves a West Division vacancy and places pressure on the Sun Belt to restore balanced scheduling across 14 teams .
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🥇 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Strengths:
Geographic fit: Located in Ruston, Louisiana Tech would slot neatly into the SBC’s Louisiana‑heavy footprint, rekindling rivalries with UL Lafayette and ULM .
Historical affiliation: As a former Sun Belt member (1991–2001), Louisiana Tech is a familiar and culturally aligned addition .
Fanbase and tradition: With strong baseball/softball programs and growing football performance, they bring both tradition and competitiveness .
Challenges:
Recent seasons haven’t consistently matched football success levels, but potential rivalries and regional cohesion make them the front‑runner .
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🥈 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Strengths:
On-field excellence: Regular bowl appearances since 2014 and strong basketball credentials make WKU a consistent performer .
Fan engagement: A spirited fanbase and competitive programs would elevate conference quality.
Challenges:
Distance: Located in Bowling Green, KY, it lies beyond the SBC’s core region, potentially straining travel budgets and logistics .
Less organic rivalries: Compared to Louisiana Tech, WKU has fewer established regional linkages in the SBC .
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🥉 Liberty Flames
Strengths:
Athletic success: Six straight bowl appearances, including a Fiesta Bowl in 2023, highlight their prowess .
Financial firepower: Backed by major donations, Liberty could pay entry fees and invest heavily in athletics .
Challenges:
Cultural concerns: As a private evangelical institution in Virginia, Liberty has encountered resistance and perceived cultural mismatch within the SBC .
Past rebuffs: Previously rebuffed by Sun Belt and C‑USA, suggesting lingering internal hesitations .
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⚪ No Replacement Option
Some suggest the Sun Belt could proceed with 13 teams temporarily, structuring an odd schedule or delaying expansion . But stakeholders generally agree balancing divisions is critical — restoring 14 teams is the likely priority .
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🧭 Other Dark‑Horse Candidates
Middle Tennessee: A solid program in C‑USA with regional relevance .
East Carolina (AAC): Logical from a rivalry and footprint perspective, but unlikely due to strategic alliances .
Memphis or UTSA: Fans occasionally mention them—but Memphis is entrenched in the AAC; UTSA’s smaller facilities may limit expansion appeal .
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✅ Verdict:
Louisiana Tech stands out as the most compelling option:
Criteria Louisiana Tech Western Kentucky Liberty
Geographic Fit ✅ ⚠️ ⚠️
Regional Rivalries ✅ ⚠️ ❌
Athletic Competitiveness 👍 ✅ ✅
Cultural Alignment ✅ ✅ ⚠️
Strategic Fit ✅ ⚠️ ⚠️
Louisiana Tech offers the perfect blend of geography, rivalry, history, and competitive consistency, aligning seamlessly with Sun Belt strategy .
Western Kentucky comes next as a strong performer but geographically distant; Liberty delivers results but carries cultural baggage. The Sun Belt will likely pursue Louisiana Tech rapidly to preserve balance and maximize league cohesion — with discussions reportedly well underway .
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In summary, Sun Belt officials are likely already focused on securing Louisiana Tech to immediately fill the West Division void. Its return promises renewed rivalries, regional stability, and balanced scheduling. Western Kentucky remains an attractive follow-up, while Liberty appears less probable. The next few months should reveal whether the Sun Belt can execute a smooth transition to 14 teams in time for the 2026–27 season.
