March Madness No More: NIL and Transfer Portal Shifting Power to the Favorites march Madness has long been synonymous with college basketball’s underdog stories. Year after year, fans eagerly anticipate the tournament’s surprise upsets, as lower-seeded teams pull off shocking victories over powerhouse programs. However, recent changes in the college sports landscape, namely the introduction of the Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rights and the widespread use of the transfer portal, are starting to shift the balance of power in favor of the traditional favorites. While the tournament will always feature excitement and drama, the current trends suggest that the unpredictability that made March Madness so captivating might be dwindling.NIL rights, implemented in 2021, allow college athletes to profit from their personal brand, including endorsements, social media partnerships, and other forms of compensation. While the concept of athletes being compensated for their talents is long overdue, it has also had a profound impact on the competitive balance within college sports. High-profile programs with larger fanbases and more resources can offer lucrative NIL deals to top players, creating an environment where the elite programs can attract even more talented recruits.This dynamic has made it increasingly difficult for mid-tier or lower-seeded teams to maintain a competitive edge. Historically, underdog teams thrived by developing talent over multiple years, building team chemistry, and relying on disciplined coaching. However, with the NIL landscape now favoring the rich and powerful, these mid-tier teams struggle to keep up. Star players can leave smaller programs in search of bigger NIL opportunities, while the elite programs have the funds and appeal to secure the best high school recruits and seasoned transfers. The result is a concentration of talent at the top of the college basketball world, making it harder for Cinderella stories to emerge.The transfer portal, which allows athletes to transfer between schools without sitting out a year, has further exacerbated this issue. While the portal provides athletes with more freedom, it also encourages a culture of short-term, immediate gratification. Programs that are able to attract top-tier transfers are often those with established programs, renowned coaches, and strong fan followings. This system allows high-profile teams to quickly fill any gaps in their roster with experienced, battle-tested players, further tipping the scales in favor of the established powers.The combination of NIL and the transfer portal has created a system where the rich get richer. Schools with deep pockets, powerful booster networks, and well-established basketball programs now have a clear advantage in attracting top talent, making it increasingly difficult for smaller, less-resourced schools to compete. While March Madness will still feature exciting basketball, it seems likely that the era of true upsets, where a mid-major can make a deep run to the Final Four, is becoming a rare occurrence.As these shifts continue to take root, the landscape of college basketball is evolving. While the tournament will always have its moments of drama, the days when a No. 15 seed could knock off a No. 2 seed might be fewer and farther between. Instead, fans may see more of the same teams duking it out at the top, with March Madness gradually resembling a more predictable, star-studded affair. The underdog narrative, so central to the tournament’s identity, is being replaced by a new era where the favorites reign supreme.
