A year ago at this time, Jackson Arnold seemed to have as high of a ceiling as any young quarterback in the country.
A former 5-star prospect, Oklahoma enthusiastically handed him the reins after 2 good-but-not-great seasons from Dillon Gabriel under center.
When fall came, OU waltzed its way through an easy nonconference slate in September and then reality hit when Tennessee came to Norman on Sept. 21. Arnold was benched after a disastrous first half that included numerous missed reads, turnovers and other disasters.
Arnold didn’t reclaim his starting job until Michael Hawkins melted down in similar fashion on Oct. 19 in a blowout home loss to South Carolina. The Sooners parted ways with offensive coordinator Seth Littrell the next day.
But aside from some big numbers against Maine in November, Arnold never really found his footing in Norman. He ended up entering the transfer portal and landed at Auburn, where he’s expected to begin the year as the starter for the 2025 season.
Will things be different for Arnold now that he’s on the Plains?
Will Jackson Arnold rebound at Auburn?
Let’s dive in to what the numbers say about Arnold’s potential moving forward.
What history says about Jackson Arnold’s future
Fair warning: Without context (which we will get to a bit later) the numbers point to a pretty bleak future for Arnold.
Arnold averaged just 5.78 yards per attempt last season on 246 throws. That is historically bad. Looking at Power 5 quarterbacks from 2014 through 2024 (the CFP era), there have only been 14 other quarterbacks who have averaged fewer yards per attempt on that kind of volume of throws.
The list, as you might imagine, doesn’t have many bright spots. Freshman Drew Lock is on there, which gives Arnold something to aim for as he continues his college career. But the list, shown below, is generally filled with quarterbacks who went pro in something other than sports:
