It appears that the most prolific three-point shooter in Miami Heat history will be playing elsewhere next season.
After three-point shooting forward Duncan Robinson exercised the early-termination option in his contract with the Heat to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, the expectation as of Tuesday afternoon is Robinson will not be returning to the Heat, according to multiple league sources.
The expectation is that Robinson will land with a new team through a sign-and-trade transaction that could bring assets back to the Heat, according to an Eastern Conference source. The Detroit Pistons are among the teams that have been pursuing the 31-year-old Robinson in free agency.Robinson’s departure would mark the end of his productive Heat tenure, as he developed into one of the organization’s undrafted success stories.
After going undrafted out of Michigan in 2018, Robinson became the franchise leader for the most career three-pointers made by a Heat player.
Robinson has made 1,202 three-pointers while shooting an impressive 39.7 percent from behind the arc during his seven regular seasons with the Heat. He’s one of only nine NBA players who has made more than 1,000 threes while shooting better than 39 percent from three-point range since the 2018-19 season, along with Stephen Curry, Buddy Hield, Malik Beasley, CJ McCollum, Paul George, Zach LaVine, Klay Thompson and Gary Trent Jr.But Robinson’s role has diminished over the years. After starting in 209 of his 239 regular-season appearances over his first four NBA seasons with the Heat, he has started in 74 of his 184 regular-season appearances over the last three seasons.
Robinson averaged 11 points, 2.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game while shooting 43.7 percent from the field and 39.3 percent on 6.5 three-point attempts per game last regular season.
With free agency opening around the NBA this past Monday at 6 p.m., the Heat has not yet made a roster move since negotiations were allowed to begin.
The Heat’s current salary-cap breakdown includes these 14 players on standard contracts with partially guaranteed or fully guaranteed salaries for next season: Bam Adebayo ($37.1 million), Tyler Herro ($31 million), Andrew Wiggins ($28.2 million), Terry Rozier ($24.9 million of $26.6 million salary currently guaranteed), Davion Mitchell (estimated $11.5 million), Kyle Anderson ($9.2 million), Haywood Highsmith ($5.6 million), Nikola Jovic ($4.4 million), Kel’el Ware ($4.4 million), Kevin Love ($4.2 million), Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($3.9 million), Kasparas Jakucionis ($3.7 million), Pelle Larsson ($978,000 of $2 million salary currently guaranteed) and Keshad Johnson ($2 million).This leaves the Heat just one player short of the 15-man regular-season limit for an NBA standard roster. When including the full salaries for Rozier and Larsson but not including cap holds, the Heat has about $173.8 million in salaries committed to 14 players for next season.
With the salary cap for the 2025-26 season set at $154.6 million and the luxury tax set at $187.9 million, the Heat is about $14 million below the luxury-tax threshold for this upcoming season. After finishing as a luxury tax team in each of the last two seasons, the expectation is the Heat will try to find a way to get below the luxury tax threshold this upcoming season in order to avoid the onerous repeater tax that’s triggered when a team crosses the luxury tax threshold in four straight seasons or four times during a five-season period.
When including the $2.5 million in “unlikely to be earned incentives” (are added to calculate where teams are against the aprons) that raise Herro’s cap number for this upcoming season to $33.5 million, the Heat has about $176.3 million in salaries committed to 14 players for next season. This has Miami about $19.6 million below the punitive first apron of $195.9 million and far from the dreaded second apron of $207.8 million.
The list of players from the Heat’s season-ending roster who are free agents this summer includes Robinson (unrestricted free agent), Alec Burks (unrestricted free agent), guard Josh Christopher (unrestricted free agent), guard Dru Smith (restricted free agent) and guard Isaiah Stevens (unrestricted free agent). Mitchell was on this list as a restricted free agent before he reached an agreement to return to the Heat prior to Monday’s start of league-wide negotiations.To replace the three-point shooting void that Robinson would leave behind, the Heat simply could bring back Burks to fill its final standard roster spot.
Burks signed a one-year veteran minimum contract with the Heat last summer and again will likely need to sign a minimum deal to return to the Heat this summer. Burks has made it clear that he hopes to be back with the Heat.
“The only thing I’m looking at is coming back here,” Burks said on June 17 of his desire to return to the Heat in free agency. “Everything else is what it is.”
Burks, who turns 34 on July 20, shot a career-best 42.5% from three-point range on 4.2 three-point attempts this past regular season in his first season with the Heat.But with the Heat not expected to re-sign Robinson, Miami will have enough room under the luxury tax to offer the $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception and/or the $5.1 million bi-annual exception to outside free agents without crossing the first apron.
This is important because using either the non-taxpayer midlevel exception or the bi-annual exception would hard cap the Heat at the first apron of $195.9 million.
With the Heat about $14 million away from the luxury-tax threshold, it could use most of the non-taxpayer midlevel exception to add an outside free agent while also still avoiding the luxury tax.
The issue for the Heat is the free-agent market is quickly drying up. Among the midlevel exception or minimum options still available in unrestricted free agency are Deandre Ayton, Spencer Dinwiddie, Al Horford, Russell Westbrook, Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Boucher, Amir Coffey, Gary Payton II, Chris Paul, Jaxson Hayes, Monte Morris, Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, De’Anthony Melton, Talen-Horton Tucker, Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet, Precious Achiuwa, Trey Lyles, Doug McDermott, Dalano Banton, Garrison Matthews, Kyle Lowry, Gary Harris, Javonte Green, Eric Gordon, Dante Exum, Marvin Bagley, Cam Reddish, Josh Richardson, Alex Len, Torrey Craig, Moe Wagner, Lonnie Walker IV, Johnny Juzang, Bol Bol, Tre Mann and James Wiseman.
