Considered to be the weakest yet most competitive division in the NFL, the NFC South is completely wide open coming into the final week of the regular season.
With the New Orleans Saints set to host the Atlanta Falcons, in addition to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traveling to Charlotte to take on the lowly Carolina Panthers, three of the four teams in the division still have a chance at coming out on top with the division crown and a Super Wild Card Weekend date with the Dallas Cowboys or, more likely, the Philadelphia Eagles.
While the Saints and Falcons will be painfully reliant on the 2-14 Panthers this Sunday, the Buccaneers have been presented with one of the most traditional playoff scenarios in all of sports: win and you’re in. Unfortunately, this won’t be as easy as it may appear to be at first glance. A twist could very well remain in the tale of the 2023 NFC South.
| NFC South Standings | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | Division Record | Conference Record | Final Opponent |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 3-2 | 6-5 | @ CAR |
| New Orleans Saints | 8-8 | 3-2 | 5-6 | vs. ATL |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7-9 | 3-2 | 4-7 | @ NO |
| Carolina Panthers | 2-14 | 1-4 | 1-10 | vs. TB |
How the Buccaneers can make the playoffs: Win and you’re in
For the Buccaneers, it can’t get any easier.
Beat the worst team in the league, and you head to the postseason with a guaranteed playoff spot and your third consecutive divisional title.
In a lot of ways, a victory will mean a sigh of relief for both fans and the organization, who faced the possibility of slipping back into irrelevancy after the departure of legendary QB Tom Brady.
However, there is still work to be done.
After splitting wins with the Saints and the Falcons, the Buccaneers left the door open for the divisional title, and while the Panthers may seem like light work, Tampa Bay did struggle to get past them earlier this season, and they have been particularly frisky defensively in recent weeks.
Panthers Defense Ranks Over Last 4 Games
Stat
Panthers
NFL Rank
Yards/Game
274.3
2nd
Yards/Play
4.8
9th
Pass Yards/Game
157.8
2nd
Rush Yards/Game
116.5
21st
A lackluster performance from QB Baker Mayfield in Week 13 resulted in the Bucs barely scraping by the Panthers, posting a final score of 21-18. Additionally, Mayfield was shaken up by a hit from Saints’ safety, Tyrann Mathieu, in the latter stages of Tampa’s Week 17 loss, so he may not be 100% for this matchup either.
While Carolina may not have a lot of things left to fight for, it’s fair to expect the hometown crowd to show up for the final game of the season and spur the team on to play with some pride. Between a banged up QB and a potentially hostile crowd, Tampa could very well be setup for a letdown spot here if they are not careful.
The Panthers have, at times, given their divisional opponents some tough games throughout 2023. The Saints also squeaked by them with a field goal in Week 2, and Carolina’s 9-7 Week 15 victory over Atlanta serves as a grim reminder to divisional rivals of what can happen when you take the day off.
The other issue is that the Panthers have been excellent against the pass, which is how Mayfield and company do most of their damage.
If Tampa Bay wants to win, they’ll have to figure out how to get their 31st-ranked run offense going against Carolina’s 23rd-ranked run defense.
he Buccaneers are ultimately listed as -250 money line favorites and are expected to put the Panthers out of their misery and advance to the playoffs. Anything else would be a complete disaster for both the franchise and Mayfield, who is in line for a massive bonus if he can lead the team to the postseason.
How the Atlanta Falcons can make the playoffs
The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the most frustrating teams to follow in the NFL this year. From the mishandling of Bijan Robinson’s stomach issues, which resulted in fines, to the overall lack of identity at QB, the Falcons have managed to misfire on what seemed to be a surefire roster. Nevertheless, they still find themselves fighting for their first playoff appearance since 2018.
The Falcons boast a respectable defense that has at times stood firm. Having allowed only 20.3 points per game on the season, Atlanta comes in as the ninth-stingiest defense in the league in that category. Despite ranking in the top 10 for fewest points allowed, the Falcons currently rank just 26th in points scored.
In Week 12, the Falcons were able to pull off the upset win over the Saints thanks to Robinson’s 91 rushing yards, 32 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
Let it also be noted that Robinson only needs 52 rushing yards to eclipse the 1,000 rushing yard mark for his rookie year. A boost in the run game could help Atlanta limit the potential for interceptions, which have been a problem this year, with the team having thrown 15 tied for eighth most.
Ultimately, in order for the Falcons to make the playoffs, there will have to be two surprises on Sunday. First and foremost, everything is predicated on the result of the Buccaneers and Panthers contest. Should disaster strike in Tampa, the second surprise will have to come from the rookie phenom and the pass catchers of Atlanta.
The Saints defense is tough, but can be generous at times with yardage. Should Robinson be given the open space and opportunity, he could burn New Orleans—the Falcons and embattled head coach Arthur Smith just need to give him and their other two top 10 picks (TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London) more opportunities to contribute on offense.
How the New Orleans Saints can make the playoffs
Despite the numerous injuries, the Carr hasn’t broken down in New Orleans just yet. QB Derek Carr has had a tumultuous first year with the Saints. However, it is worth noting that since the Carr-led offense was showered with boos by the New Orleans faithful at home in Week 13, the signal caller has had two or more touchdowns and the Saints have scored at least 22 points in each game. Consider the criticism received.
The Saints, much like the Falcons, are a tale of two sides. The Saints have only allowed 310 points this season on the defensive side, good for sixth in the league. However, their 354 total points on the offensive side places them firmly in the middle of the pack at 15th overall.
Sophomore WR sensation, Chris Olave, is proving to be one of the more talented young receivers in the league. Should Carr be able to dial in his accuracy, Olave’s speed and route precision could prove to be the difference maker.
With Alvin Kamara potentially out, Carr should also be expected to continue building chemistry with TE Juwan Johnson. With a better defense and signal-caller, the Saints are listed as the betting favorites for the contest. It’s just a matter of whether Carr will be able to push the envelope and connect on the necessary throws downfield.
Essentially, the Saints and the Falcons are in the same boat. Two solid defenses and two inconsistent offenses. Should one of them be able to find a spark on offense, they will more than likely win, as it’s unlikely that their rival will be able to do the same.
One would think that Carr is the more likely of the two out of him and Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke to avoid the mistakes and make the plays his team needs to win. Should there prove to be a little black magic in Tampa Bay, the boys in the Bayou are the most likely beneficiaries.
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