What if, instead of Wiggins, Mat Ishbia decides to take Rozier, a negative asset despite being on an expiring contract? A quintet of Herro-Wiggins-Durant-Adebayo-Ware would take up **checks notes** 100.5 percent of the team’s cap ($155.4M) … for five players. That’s it. Five. For over 100 percent of the cap.
We’re staring in the face of a scenario where the Heat may have to either trade Tyler Herro, who’s up for extension this offseason, or risk not being able to re-sign Mitchell, who blossomed in 30 games with the Heat after being acquired at the deadline. The former doesn’t factor in the fact that not only has trading Herro been far more theoretical than practical (historically), but also the possible contracts that could be included in return. The latter, however, means you lose one of your most impactful players for nothing and are left with an incredibly expensive roster at the top.
If you retain all of the above, you’d better get creative … or you’re at risk of being an incredibly top-heavy roster, which doesn’t work in today’s NBA anymore. Let’s look at some combinations for the percentage of cap that certain players allocate for:
Kevin Durant with no Herro, but Mitchell, Jovic and Ware:
KD + Bam + Davion ($8M cap hit, for perspective) + Jovic + Ware: 70,3%
KD + Bam + Davion ($10M) + Jovic + Ware: 71.6%
KD + Bam + Davion ($8M) + Jovic + Ware + HH: 73.9%
KD + Bam + Davion ($10M) + Jovic + Ware + HH: 75.2%
Kevin Durant with no Davion, but add Herro in and shuffle Jovic, Haywood Highsmith and Jaime Jaquez Jr.:
KD + Bam + Tyler + Jovic + Ware: 85.2%
KD + Bam + Tyler + Jovic + Ware + HH: 88.8%
KD + Bam + Tyler + Jaquez + Ware: 84.8%
KD + Bam + Tyler + Jaquez + Ware + HH: 88.4%
Kevin Durant with Mitchell, Jovic and Jaquez:
KD + Bam + Tyler + Jovic + Ware + HH + Davion ($8M): 94.0%,
KD + Bam + Tyler + Jovic + Ware + HH + Davion ($10M): 95.3%,
KD + Bam + Tyler + Jaquez + Ware + HH + Davion ($8M): 93.6%,
KD + Bam + Tyler + Jaquez + Ware + HH + Davion ($10M): 94.9%
It’s worth mentioning that most NBA teams operate over the cap, but the first apron is projected to be roughly $46.1 million above the cap, while the second apron is $53.2 million above. There’s breathing room, but when you have to fill out a roster full of 14 players, the tighter you get, the more sturdy those avenues become.
Less is more, and more is less. The less the Heat would have to trade for Durant, the more bloated its cap sheet becomes–limiting their flexibility to make other moves conducive to building a contender. The more it risks giving up, its cap sheet becomes better … but the team doesn’t, and acquiring more viable replacements in free agency (likely at or near the minimum) or with whatever of their middling asset pool has left becomes difficult.
None of this is to say that Durant wouldn’t help. He absolutely would. He’s one of the best scorers any of us has ever seen.
But at what cost are you risking mortgaging the future and dumping more into a 37-win team that was emasculated inside their home building in the postseason without their third-best player … for a 37-year-old in the twilight of his career?
These are the questions that must be asked and answered if this is a route the Heat legitimately pursues. But the prevailing question will be: Who will be the sacrificial lamb(s) in order to make this construct somewhat appeasing?
